No Sign of a Slowdown in the Toronto Area Market

Toronto area prices in June were slightly lower than in May, consistent with the normal seasonal pattern, but 16% higher than last June. This is the largest year-over-year increase so far in 2016, and roughly double the year-over-year increases we have seen pretty consistently over the past 20 years. The super-hot GTA market continues apace.The real story behind the hot market is inventory – defined as the ratio of listings to sales in any given month or, roughly, how many months’ supply of homes we have at any given time. The rule of thumb is that a three month supply of homes for sale corresponds a market that is in balance, that is, there are roughly equal numbers of sellers and buyers. Right now, we have about one month’s supply in the GTA, which represents an extreme imbalance between buyers and sellers and which is resulting in furious competition for the few homes that are for sale.The picture is even more extreme when we strip out condominium apartments, where the inventory isn’t quite so low (just under two months’ supply) and focus on freehold properties, particularly detached single family homes, where the inventory is under 0.8 months.Recent turbulence in the financial markets, especially following the Brexit vote, is tending to drive investors to safe havens, and Canada is near the top of that list.

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No Sign of a Slowdown in the Toronto Area Market

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